So there I was yesterday, deep in the weeds of website optimization for CasaDay Press, when I stumbled across an Amazon royalty calculator that made me stop and think. Not about header images or color schemes this time–I’ve had enough WordPress wrestling matches for one week–but about something more fundamental: the math behind this whole bestseller quest I’ve gotten myself into.
I found a simple little tool that calculates Amazon publishing royalties in real-time. You punch in your numbers–how many books, what price, how many sales per day–and it spits out what your monthly and yearly income might look like.
And let me tell you, it’s both more encouraging and more sobering than I expected.
The Tool That Makes Dreams Tangible
The free Amazon Royalties Estimator (which you can try out below) by my long-time online friend Will Bontrager is one of those beautifully simple pieces of technology that does exactly what it says on the tin. You type a number in any field–number of titles, average price, books sold per day–and all the other numbers adjust automatically.
It’s like having a crystal ball, except instead of mystical visions, you get cold, hard projections about whether your publishing dreams have any basis in financial reality.
I’ve added it to my CasaDay Press website because I think every indie publisher should play around with these numbers. Not to get discouraged, but to get realistic about what it actually takes to make this work.
Running My Own Numbers (The Humbling)
Here’s what happens when a 77-year-old with a three-year bestseller deadline starts plugging in realistic numbers:
Current Reality Check:
- Number of titles: 11 (four existing novels, memoir, plus six Lost Pages series titles)
- Average price: $4.99 (I learned from my natural health website days that it’s easier to sell one $10 item than ten $1 items)
- Average delivery charge: $0.06 (Amazon’s typical fee)
- Average books sold per title per day: 0.13 (that’s being generous—I’m currently lucky to hit two sales per week across all titles)
The result? About $48 per month. Or roughly $576 per year.
That’s not bestseller money. That’s “maybe I can afford two fancy coffees once a week” money. Hell, that barely covers my website hosting costs and leaves enough for a sandwich.
The Bestseller Math Reality
But here’s where it gets interesting. Let me adjust those numbers to reflect what bestseller status might actually look like:
Bestseller Scenario:
- Number of titles: 12 (the complete Lost Pages series plus existing works)
- Average price: $4.99 (I’m sticking with this based on experience–easier to sell one book at $10 than ten books at $1)
- Average delivery charge: $0.06
- Average books sold per title per day: 50 (this is where the magic happens)
The result? About $10,130 per month. Over $121,000 per year.
Now we’re talking about life-changing income. But look at that crucial number: 50 books per title per day. Across 12 titles, that’s 600 book sales daily. Over 18,000 books per month.
Suddenly my three-year timeline doesn’t seem crazy–it seems barely adequate.
Why Every Indie Publisher Needs This Reality Check
Playing with this calculator for an hour taught me more about the publishing business than most of the “how to make money writing” articles I’ve read. Here’s what became crystal clear:
Volume Matters More Than Price: You can charge $9.99 instead of $2.99, but if you’re only selling one book per day, you’re still broke. But here’s the thing I learned from my natural health website years–it’s actually easier to sell one $10 item than ten $1 items. Higher prices often suggest higher value, and people respect what they pay more for.
My long-term strategy with the books offered by my independent CasaDay Press is to gradually work up to pricing a dollar or two below what the New York publishing houses charge for their steady sellers—think $12.99 instead of $14.99. But that takes time, audience building, and plenty of price testing to see what the market will bear. You can’t just jump from $2.99 to $12.99 overnight without the reputation and reader loyalty to back it up.
Multiple Titles Are Essential: The difference between having three books and twelve books isn’t just more content–it’s the difference between hobby income and living income.
Consistency Beats Big Launches: Selling 10 books per day, every day, beats selling 100 books one day and 0 the next 15 days.
The Magic Number Is Higher Than You Think: To hit what most people would consider “bestseller income,” you need to be moving serious volume consistently.
The Encouragement Hidden in the Math
Here’s the thing that surprised me: when you break it down daily, bestseller status doesn’t require impossible numbers. Fifty sales per day per title sounds overwhelming until you realize that’s about two sales per hour during a 24-hour period.
If you’ve got readers in different time zones, if your books are priced right, if you’re consistently creating content people want… those numbers start looking achievable rather than impossible.
The calculator also shows you exactly where to focus your energy. Want to double your income? You can:
- Double your titles (long-term strategy)
- Double your daily sales (marketing and audience building)
- Significantly raise your prices (only works if you’ve built real value)
Most successful indie publishers do all three, but in sequence.
What This Means for the CasaDay Press Strategy
Running these numbers clarified my three-year plan considerably:
Year One: Build the foundation. Get to 12 titles in the Lost Pages series while growing daily sales from 2 to 10 per title through the Substack audience and strategic marketing.
Year Two: Scale up marketing. Focus on getting those daily sales from 10 to 25 per title through better visibility, reviews, and word-of-mouth.
Year Three: The final push. Everything I’ve learned about audience building, everything I’ve figured out about what readers want, gets thrown at the problem of reaching 50 daily sales per title.
Hit those numbers consistently, and I’m not just a bestselling author—I’m a financially successful one.
Try It Yourself
I think every writer should spend some time with these numbers. Not to get discouraged, but to get strategic.
You can run numbers with Will’s calculator below or play around with the original version on his website, where you’ll also find directions on how to add the JavaScript to your website.
Plug in your current numbers first. Then plug in your dream numbers. The gap between those two sets of figures? That’s your business plan.
Because here’s what I’ve learned at 77: dreams without math are just fantasies. But dreams with math? Those become plans. And plans can become reality.
Even if the math is a little terrifying at first.
The Bottom Line
Will this calculator help me hit bestseller status before I turn 80? Probably not directly. But it’s given me something invaluable: clarity about what I’m actually trying to accomplish and what it’s going to take to get there.
If you’re an indie publisher, you need this kind of clarity too. The calculator won’t write your books or find your readers, but it’ll show you exactly what success looks like in concrete, measurable terms.
And sometimes, that’s exactly the reality check you need to turn a crazy dream into an achievable goal.
Want to follow along as I document my own time investments, learning curves, and (hopefully) eventual wins in this crazy bestseller quest? Subscribe to my notification email list for real-time updates on whether an old dog can indeed learn some very profitable new tricks.