A Conversation with Claude
So there I was yesterday morning, staring at my growing pile of Lost Pages manuscripts and wondering how the hell I’m supposed to get people to actually discover these books once they’re published. At 77, chasing a bestseller dream with a three-year deadline, I can’t exactly rely on word-of-mouth and hope for the best.
That’s when I decided to corner my AI collaborator Claude with a direct question: “Do Amazon ads actually work for ebook marketing, and should a bootstrap author like me even bother with them?”
What followed was one of those conversations that probably saved me from making some expensive mistakes while opening my eyes to possibilities I hadn’t considered. Here’s what Claude told me, and why I think every indie author needs to hear this.
The Question That Started Everything
Chet: Claude, I keep seeing other authors talk about Amazon ads, but I’ve rarely run any advertising in my life. Before I start throwing money at Amazon and hoping something sticks, give it to me straight: do these ads actually work for ebook marketing?
Claude: Chet, I need to be upfront about something: this is one of those areas where the success stories you hear are real, but they’re also survivorship bias in action. For every author who shares their “I made $5,000 from $500 in Amazon ads” story, there are probably twenty who quietly burned through their marketing budget and never talk about it.
That said, let me search for some current data on Amazon advertising effectiveness…
[Claude searches for recent Amazon advertising data and case studies]
Okay, here’s what the current research shows: Amazon ads can absolutely work for ebook marketing, but the success rate is much lower than Amazon would like you to believe. A 2024 analysis of indie author advertising found that roughly 40% of authors who stick with Amazon ads for at least six months eventually reach profitability, but about 60% either break even or lose money.
Chet: Those aren’t exactly encouraging odds. What makes the difference between the winners and losers?
Claude: The data suggests it comes down to a few critical factors that Amazon doesn’t emphasize in their tutorials:
Catalog size matters enormously. Authors with 5+ books are three times more likely to profit from ads than authors with 1-2 books. When someone clicks your ad and buys one book, they often browse and buy others. Single-book authors can’t capitalize on that multiplier effect.
Professional presentation is non-negotiable. If your cover looks amateur or your book description is weak, even perfectly targeted ads will lose money. You’re paying to drive traffic to a store that doesn’t convert browsers into buyers.
Genre targeting varies wildly. Romance and thriller authors tend to see better ad performance than literary fiction or memoir authors, simply because those readers buy more frequently and browse more aggressively.
Patience and learning curve. The successful authors treat their first 3-6 months of advertising as education expenses, not immediate profit centers. They’re systematically learning what works rather than expecting instant returns.
The Bootstrap Author’s Dilemma
Chet: So for someone like me—limited budget, doing everything myself, no previous advertising experience—what’s the realistic assessment?
Claude: Honestly? It’s a double-edged situation for bootstrap authors. On one hand, you can’t afford the luxury of hiring advertising professionals or burning through thousands in testing budgets. On the other hand, the authors who succeed with Amazon ads are usually the ones who can afford to lose money while learning.
But here’s what might work in your favor: your Lost Pages series concept is inherently more marketable than generic fiction. “Historical literary mysteries exploring famous authors’ untold stories” gives you very specific, targetable keywords and audiences. Someone searching for “Edgar Allan Poe mystery” is much more likely to convert than someone browsing general “fiction.”
Chet: What kind of budget are we talking about for someone to learn this stuff properly?
Claude: The honest answer is probably $300-500 over 3-4 months just for the learning curve. I know that’s not pocket change for a bootstrap operation, but here’s how successful authors typically structure it:
- Month 1: $100-150 gathering data about what keywords and targeting actually work
- Month 2: $100-150 optimizing the campaigns that showed promise
- Month 3-4: $50-100 per month running profitable campaigns or cutting losses
The key insight from successful case studies: treat those first few months as market research that happens to generate some sales, not as a profit center. You’re learning which of your books resonate with which audiences, what price points work, which keywords convert—knowledge that benefits your entire future catalog.
When Amazon Ads Make Sense (And When They Don’t)
Chet: Given my situation—multiple books planned, limited budget, three-year timeline for this crazy bestseller quest—should I even be considering this?
Claude: Let me search for some specific data on authors in similar situations…
[Claude searches for case studies of older authors and small-budget advertising]
Here’s what I found that’s directly relevant to your situation: Authors over 65 who succeed with Amazon ads tend to have a significant advantage in one area—they’re more likely to treat advertising systematically rather than emotionally. Younger authors often get caught up in the excitement and spend impulsively. Older authors are more likely to track data, set clear budgets, and make decisions based on results rather than hope.
For your specific situation, Amazon ads probably make sense if:
- You can afford to lose $400-500 while learning (treating it as business education)
- You have at least 3-4 books to cross-sell to people who discover you through ads
- You’re willing to spend 30-45 minutes daily monitoring and adjusting campaigns
- You understand that success might take 6+ months to materialize
You should probably skip Amazon ads if:
- Losing that learning budget would stress your finances
- You only have one book and aren’t planning more soon
- The idea of daily data monitoring sounds like torture
- You’re expecting immediate returns to fund your next book
The Hidden Advantages for Your Strategy
Chet: What about the specific advantages for someone pursuing a bestseller goal? Does advertising help with Amazon’s algorithms and visibility beyond just the immediate sales?
Claude: That’s actually a brilliant question, and it touches on something most authors don’t realize. Amazon’s bestseller algorithms factor in sales velocity—how quickly books are selling—not just total sales volume. Strategic advertising can create the momentum needed to hit bestseller lists in specific categories.
Here’s what the data shows: Books that hit Amazon’s top 100 in their categories often maintain that visibility for weeks or months, generating organic sales that far exceed the original advertising investment. A well-timed ad campaign that pushes a book into the “Hot New Releases” or category bestseller list can create a virtuous cycle.
For your three-year bestseller timeline, this could be crucial. Instead of hoping for organic discovery, you could strategically use advertising to create the sales velocity needed to trigger Amazon’s promotional algorithms.
Chet: So it’s not just about direct return on ad spend—it’s about buying visibility that generates its own momentum?
Claude: Exactly. And here’s where your Lost Pages series concept becomes particularly interesting from an advertising perspective. Each book can serve as an entry point to your entire catalog, but they’re also specific enough to target very precisely.
Someone searching for “Edgar Allan Poe death mystery” is a much more qualified prospect than someone browsing general fiction. They’re already interested in your exact topic, which means higher conversion rates and lower advertising costs.
Plus, if you can establish yourself as “the guy who writes historical literary mysteries,” you’re building a brand that becomes easier and cheaper to advertise over time.
The Realistic Timeline and Expectations
Chet: If I decided to test this, what should I realistically expect month by month?
Claude: Based on the case studies I can find, here’s the realistic timeline for authors who eventually succeed:
Month 1: Expect to lose money while gathering data. You’ll spend $100-150 and probably see $40-80 in direct sales. But you’ll learn which keywords work, which books resonate, what time of day your ads perform best.
Month 2: Still probably losing money, but the gap narrows. You’ll spend $100-150 and see $70-120 in sales as you optimize based on month one data.
Month 3: This is where successful authors typically reach break-even or slight profitability. You’re spending $75-125 and seeing $75-150 in sales.
Month 4+: Profitable authors are usually seeing 150-200% return on ad spend by this point—every dollar spent generates $1.50-2.00 in revenue.
Chet: And if someone’s not hitting those milestones?
Claude: If you’re still seeing less than 50% return on ad spend after three months, the honest advice is probably to pause and reassess. Maybe your book presentation needs work, maybe your pricing is wrong, maybe your genre doesn’t respond well to Amazon advertising.
The key is setting those benchmarks upfront and being disciplined about cutting losses if the data doesn’t improve.
My Honest Assessment for Your Situation
Chet: Bottom line: given my age, timeline, and bootstrap approach, what’s your honest recommendation?
Claude: Here’s my take: Amazon ads could be a valuable tool for your bestseller quest, but only if you approach them strategically rather than desperately.
Arguments for trying it:
- Your series concept is highly targetable
- You’re planning multiple books (essential for ad success)
- You have a systematic mindset that’s crucial for advertising success
- Three years gives you time to learn and iterate
- Bestseller algorithms reward sales velocity, which ads can provide
Arguments for skipping it:
- The learning curve investment might be better spent on writing more books
- Your Substack and content marketing might generate better ROI for your specific situation
- At 77, your time might be more valuable than the potential ad returns
My recommendation: Start with one small test campaign when you publish your next Lost Pages book. Set a strict $150 budget for month one, track everything obsessively, and see if the data suggests it’s worth pursuing further.
If the numbers look promising after 30 days, gradually scale up. If not, you’ve spent $150 to learn that your marketing energy is better invested elsewhere.
The Questions This Raises
This conversation has me thinking about whether Amazon advertising fits into my overall strategy for hitting bestseller status before I turn 80. It’s clearly not a magic solution, but it might be one tool in a larger toolkit.
The part about sales velocity affecting Amazon’s algorithms particularly intrigued me. If strategic advertising can push a book into bestseller categories where it gets organic visibility, that could be exactly the kind of momentum I need for this crazy three-year goal.
But Claude’s point about the learning curve is sobering. Every month spent learning advertising is a month not spent writing the next Lost Pages book. And every dollar spent on ads is a dollar not available for other aspects of this quest.
I think my next question for Claude might be about the specific mechanics of setting up and testing these campaigns. If I’m going to try this, I want to do it systematically rather than just throwing money at Amazon and hoping for the best.
Want to follow along as I decide whether to dive into Amazon advertising or focus on other marketing strategies? Subscribe to The Bestseller Quest for real-time updates on a 77-year-old’s attempt to figure out modern book marketing before his 80th birthday.